Early Morneau Riser

Justin Morneau has put up an amazing season this year. He is in the Top 5 for numerous offensive categories, while playing solid 1B defense.

.365 Batting Average (2nd in AL)
.474 On Base Percentage (1st in AL)
.665 Slugging Percentage (T-1st in AL)
1.139 OPS On Base + Slugging (1st in AL)

These stats are pretty impressive over the first 2 months of the season. The problem is, we all have to realize he has a significant split stat over his career. He seems to get tired over the second half of the season and the stat line shows this. This could be anything from conditioning, small injuries, pitching adjustments, or even issues under pressure.

His 3 year numbers Pre All Star and Post All Star are as follows:

Pre All Star Numbers: .310 Avg .382 OBP .554 SLG .936 OPS
Post All Star Numbers: .241 Avg .328 OBP .424 SLG .752 OPS

Now, those of you that remember his back injury last year will bring that up as defense, but it is more than just that injury. If you take individual years outside of last years back injury, the same split shows.

2007
Pre: .295 Avg .364 OBP .581 SLG .945 OPS
Post: .243 Avg .318 OBP .384 SLG .702 OPS

2008
Pre: .323 Avg .391 OBP .512 SLG .903 OPS
Post: .267 Avg .350 OBP .481 SLG .831 OPS

The one anomaly in these numbers was the 2006 MVP season. While it's possible that the last 3 years have been the exception, it seems much more likely that the 1 year in 2006 was.

Now, none of this means that I dislike Morneau or don't think he is a tremendous asset to the Minnesota Twins. I just want people to have realistic expectations of our beloved first baseman. While it's a great story to see him clubbing like this in the first half, we have seen it before. I understand why the praise is not coming from the national media while there is a storyline of the greatest rookie class to come in to the game (Strasburg, Stanton, Santana, Posey, Garcia, Boesch, Leake, etc.) Storylines for Ken Griffey Jr retiring, Perfect games being thrown (and blown,) and Miguel Cabrera putting up Triple Crown numbers at the same position as Morneau (even the same division) and he has proven that he can do this the entire season year in and year out.

I believe Morneau is one of the best first baseman in the league both offensively and defensively. I believe he would get much more credit and recognition in a larger market, or even a market where he didn't have to compete for headlines with the hometown hero Joe Mauer. However, he is getting national recognition for his achievements. Recently he has been in McDonalds advertisements, he has won an MVP award, and he is always in the top 3 in national all star voting. Morneau is an amazing talent, but let's not talk about him getting shut out of national attention until he continues putting up these numbers in August.

- J Filth

MLB Draft

Tonight is the MLB First Year Player Draft. This is my third year seriously watching the draft. Previously, I read some scouting reports and just kind of went with what the high profile reporters said. However, the last three years I've been watching video, reading stat lines, checking body frames vs. throwing motion / swing motion and reading numerous scout evaluations. The following is a list of my favorite talents from the last couple years and those players that I think will develop in to top tier players in this years draft.

I know lists are sloppy writing, but those that read this blog realize that I'm just throwing out stream of consciousness words anyway. So on with the slop.

2008:
1. Brian Matusz - 4th Overall - Baltimore Orioles
2. Yonder Alonso - 7th Overall - Cincinnati Reds
3. Aaron Crow - 9th Overall - Washington Nationals
4. Aaron Hicks - 14th Overall - Minnesota Twins
5. Buster Posey - 5th Overall - San Francisco Giants

2009 (Stasburg obvious #1, so outside of him):
1. Zach Wheeler - 6th Overall - San Francisco Giants
2. Kyle Gibson - 22nd Overall - Minnesota Twins
3. Tyler Matzek - 11th Overall - Colorado Rockies
4. Mike Minor - 7th Overall - Atlanta Braves
5t. Mike Trout - 25th Overall - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5t. Dustin Ackley - 2nd Overall - Seattle Mariners

2010 (Harper obvious #1, so outside of him):
1. Karsten Whitson - 9th Overall - San Diego Padres
2. Manny Machado - 3rd Overall - Baltimore Orioles
3. Nick Castellanos - Yet to be selected (as of 7:30pm CST)
4. Michael Fotynewicz - Yet to be selected (as of 7:30pm CST)
5. Christian Colon - 4th Overall - Kansas City Royals

So I guess time will tell about all of these guys. Some success stories didn't make my top 5 lists (Mike Leake in 2009.) The Minnesota Twins are coming up on the clock soon and I'd like us to take either Nick Castellanos or Michael Fotynewicz if they are still available. All the mocks and reports have us taking Wimmers. That would be a solid choice that I would be fine with, but I believe my 5 listed above have a much higher upside.

Baseball's future is tonight.

- J Filth