Early Morneau Riser

Justin Morneau has put up an amazing season this year. He is in the Top 5 for numerous offensive categories, while playing solid 1B defense.

.365 Batting Average (2nd in AL)
.474 On Base Percentage (1st in AL)
.665 Slugging Percentage (T-1st in AL)
1.139 OPS On Base + Slugging (1st in AL)

These stats are pretty impressive over the first 2 months of the season. The problem is, we all have to realize he has a significant split stat over his career. He seems to get tired over the second half of the season and the stat line shows this. This could be anything from conditioning, small injuries, pitching adjustments, or even issues under pressure.

His 3 year numbers Pre All Star and Post All Star are as follows:

Pre All Star Numbers: .310 Avg .382 OBP .554 SLG .936 OPS
Post All Star Numbers: .241 Avg .328 OBP .424 SLG .752 OPS

Now, those of you that remember his back injury last year will bring that up as defense, but it is more than just that injury. If you take individual years outside of last years back injury, the same split shows.

2007
Pre: .295 Avg .364 OBP .581 SLG .945 OPS
Post: .243 Avg .318 OBP .384 SLG .702 OPS

2008
Pre: .323 Avg .391 OBP .512 SLG .903 OPS
Post: .267 Avg .350 OBP .481 SLG .831 OPS

The one anomaly in these numbers was the 2006 MVP season. While it's possible that the last 3 years have been the exception, it seems much more likely that the 1 year in 2006 was.

Now, none of this means that I dislike Morneau or don't think he is a tremendous asset to the Minnesota Twins. I just want people to have realistic expectations of our beloved first baseman. While it's a great story to see him clubbing like this in the first half, we have seen it before. I understand why the praise is not coming from the national media while there is a storyline of the greatest rookie class to come in to the game (Strasburg, Stanton, Santana, Posey, Garcia, Boesch, Leake, etc.) Storylines for Ken Griffey Jr retiring, Perfect games being thrown (and blown,) and Miguel Cabrera putting up Triple Crown numbers at the same position as Morneau (even the same division) and he has proven that he can do this the entire season year in and year out.

I believe Morneau is one of the best first baseman in the league both offensively and defensively. I believe he would get much more credit and recognition in a larger market, or even a market where he didn't have to compete for headlines with the hometown hero Joe Mauer. However, he is getting national recognition for his achievements. Recently he has been in McDonalds advertisements, he has won an MVP award, and he is always in the top 3 in national all star voting. Morneau is an amazing talent, but let's not talk about him getting shut out of national attention until he continues putting up these numbers in August.

- J Filth

MLB Draft

Tonight is the MLB First Year Player Draft. This is my third year seriously watching the draft. Previously, I read some scouting reports and just kind of went with what the high profile reporters said. However, the last three years I've been watching video, reading stat lines, checking body frames vs. throwing motion / swing motion and reading numerous scout evaluations. The following is a list of my favorite talents from the last couple years and those players that I think will develop in to top tier players in this years draft.

I know lists are sloppy writing, but those that read this blog realize that I'm just throwing out stream of consciousness words anyway. So on with the slop.

2008:
1. Brian Matusz - 4th Overall - Baltimore Orioles
2. Yonder Alonso - 7th Overall - Cincinnati Reds
3. Aaron Crow - 9th Overall - Washington Nationals
4. Aaron Hicks - 14th Overall - Minnesota Twins
5. Buster Posey - 5th Overall - San Francisco Giants

2009 (Stasburg obvious #1, so outside of him):
1. Zach Wheeler - 6th Overall - San Francisco Giants
2. Kyle Gibson - 22nd Overall - Minnesota Twins
3. Tyler Matzek - 11th Overall - Colorado Rockies
4. Mike Minor - 7th Overall - Atlanta Braves
5t. Mike Trout - 25th Overall - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
5t. Dustin Ackley - 2nd Overall - Seattle Mariners

2010 (Harper obvious #1, so outside of him):
1. Karsten Whitson - 9th Overall - San Diego Padres
2. Manny Machado - 3rd Overall - Baltimore Orioles
3. Nick Castellanos - Yet to be selected (as of 7:30pm CST)
4. Michael Fotynewicz - Yet to be selected (as of 7:30pm CST)
5. Christian Colon - 4th Overall - Kansas City Royals

So I guess time will tell about all of these guys. Some success stories didn't make my top 5 lists (Mike Leake in 2009.) The Minnesota Twins are coming up on the clock soon and I'd like us to take either Nick Castellanos or Michael Fotynewicz if they are still available. All the mocks and reports have us taking Wimmers. That would be a solid choice that I would be fine with, but I believe my 5 listed above have a much higher upside.

Baseball's future is tonight.

- J Filth

Summer of LeBron

Would the lyrics of Summer of ’69 be able to substitute LeBron for ’69? I think it’s passable. Anyway, here’s two cents about what might be the best fit for LeBron from an outsider perspective.

First, LeBron is a man. He has his own thoughts and feelings. Just because something is a good fit, doesn’t necessarily mean he likes the city and wants to live there. A large portion of this summer's decision isn’t necessarily teammates, money or endorsements. It’s going to be the man’s personal happiness. NBA glory would be great as well, but remember that we are talking about a guy moving to a new city for a job. Just like anyone else, you want to be happy with the city you live in. So just because the Knicks being led back to glory after 50 years of mediocrity (exception to the Ewing/Oakley front line that couldn’t get by Jordan) would be a good story, doesn’t mean that he wants to live near Madison Square Garden.

Taking in to consideration all of the factors except for his personal feelings, the best fit for LeBron James would be the New Jersey Nets. Recently the Nets have lost consideration in most media reporting and Chicago, Cleveland and New York seem to be the only teams they are talking about. So we’ll break it down a bit more than what the blurbs explain on ESPN and the like.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
We should start where he left off and where he will be for at least the next month before the free agency period begins. Cleveland has built its franchise around LeBron, but it obviously has not worked. Danny Ferry has tried so hard to bring in new and different talent in this short period of time because the window is potentially closing for their success. Arguably, the only real consistent presence has been their internal man Anderson Varejao. I have to think that LeBron has seen what Cleveland has to offer. They tried to build a team around him, but settled for less than ideal talent to fill very big roles. Daniel Gibson had to take big shots a year ago, Anthony Parker this year. The potential controversy over DeLonte West can’t leave a good taste in LeBron’s mouth either (if you don’t know, do a search for DeLonte and LeBron.) The only real selling point for Cleveland is the potential for JJ Hickson and a potential new coach with an actual offensive scheme. Mike Brown did not do the team any favors, by just giving LeBron the ball and letting him run an offense of his own design, an offense of jacking up long 3 point shots and driving the lane to triple team defense.

Without any significant draft picks, young sprouting talent (outside of JJ Hickson), veteran leadership from either coach or point guard and no shooters to compliment his assets, there is no incentive to resigning with Cleveland outside of the extra cash from one more guaranteed year.

Chicago Bulls:
Derrick Rose is the best point guard in the game within 2 years. There is no doubt in my mind about this statement. He is able to take over games with his physicality, he can drive, he can shoot, he can run different offensive schemes and he can close out games. On the surface, this looks like a great teammate for LeBron, but LeBron would have to take a backseat to Rose. Rose would be running the offense and LeBron would have to play on the wing and slash. This would be extremely entertaining and be a potentially dominating team, but I can’t imagine that LeBron would want to be the second option on a squad, since by default Rose is the first option with the ball in his hand. This is especially true for a team that would ultimately cast the biggest shadow in the form of his Airness, Michael Jordan.

Then you can add in Joakim Noah as a nice rebounder, but the rest of the team doesn’t fit well with a LeBron type talent. The desire would be to have shooters able to nail shots when LeBron and Rose kick the ball out after they drive and absorb the defenders. The Bulls only have Kirk Hinrich as a shooter and I wouldn’t want to depend on 6’3” Kirk Hinrich as my one and only dead shooter. Hakim Warrick, Taj Gibson, James Johnson can be quality players, but none fill out the team in a way to help LeBron.

New York Knicks:
The New York Knicks have a compelling case to bringing in LeBron. The first of which is the largest stage on the planet. Playing in New York City, in front of the world’s media, in Madison Square Garden nightly is the largest publicity he could ask for. His endorsement possibilities are much greater in a city like New York. He would have a daunting task in bringing a storied franchise back to glory after years of mediocrity like a phoenix rising from the rosin powder he throws before each game. They moved all of their money around the past couple years to be in a position to sign both LeBron and another big time free agent player. They signed a high octane offensive coach in Mike D’Antoni. All these things are good selling points for the Knicks and it might be enough to lure him, however, the actual roster doesn’t seem to fit LeBron’s game.

Mike D’Antoni’s running team revolves around the steady play of a solid point guard and that is the one thing that the Knicks lack the most. Without a steady point guard (and none on the free agent market) the Knicks may have to run an offensive system similar to what Cleveland ran with LeBron. Basically give him the ball and let him try to create. The Knicks, like the Bulls also lack the shooters needed for LeBron to kick the ball out. I can’t imagine LeBron kicking the ball out to 6’1” Toney Douglas for game winning shots consistently. Wilson Chandler could be a decent player, but is not physical enough to play the 4 and LeBron would be playing the 3. Danilo Gallinari could be a nice asset as a big, shooting 4 player, but then they would still be lacking a rebounding presence inside. So, the Knicks need a lot of work that free agency won’t resolve. A point guard, a rebounding center, an interior defensive presence and shooters are needed even if they bring in both LeBron and Amare Stoudamire.

New Jersey Nets:
The New Jersey Nets in all likelihood will be the Brooklyn Nets within 3 years. The area brings him to the largest stage in the world, which as stated above, brings in all types of endorsement possibilities. The new Russian billionaire owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, is willing to spend the money for a brand new, state of the art facility in Brooklyn, spend the money for the best coach possible, spend the money to promote the franchise to try to make Knicks fans in to Nets fans, and spare no expense for future acquisitions. It doesn’t hurt that LeBron is known for being friends with Jay-Z and he is partial owner of the team. The greatest reason for LeBron to go to the Nets is the team itself.

Yes, it’s true the Nets had the worst record in the league last year. However, there is a lot of talent on the team without a true leader. LeBron could be that leader. Devin Harris is a steady point guard that doesn’t need to be the star, which is a perfect fit for a player like LeBron. Brook Lopez is a better version of Anderson Varajeo with more youth and bigger upside. These two positions are the biggest need to a slashing/shooting small forward like LeBron. Then, you add in some shooters on the outside to compliment LeBron and make defenses not be able to focus completely on them. Being able to kick the ball out to Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts is much better than what other teams can offer. The Nets have a young Terrence Williams that can play three positions and defend the ball well to fill in all the gaps of the game that are missing. Even Yi Jianlian has a chance to be a better player with a guy like LeBron taking pressure off him. Then, the Nets have the 3rd overall pick in this year’s draft that they can use on a quality power forward prospect like Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins.

The Nets have a perfect combination of location, money, publicity, talent and youth to compete and continue to grow over the next 10 years. This is a much better offer than any other franchise can come up with. The largest media city in the world, an owner willing to spend mercilessly, young talent to compliment his game and the ability to grow with these young players for years to come is the greatest situation LeBron James could ask for. Now, the question is, does LeBron want to live in New York?

- J Filth

Yankee Aplogist?

An obvious statement would be that the New York Yankees are the most hated team in baseball. Countless times I have had conversations with friends, co-workers, and strangers about the New York Yankees. Every complaint revolves around the Yankees buying their players and they are sick of seeing money win championships instead of teams. I am not a Yankee sympathizer, in fact, they are my most hated team, but for more classical rivalry reasons. I always find myself having to defend them in the arguments with all of these people. There are a few things people need to realize about how the Yankees have been consistently successful over the last 15 years.

This year, every broadcaster has been announcing that the Yankees have the three players that have played the longest together for any franchise in any sport. That is 15 years together for Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. This is reason alone to give credit to the Yankees success, but other teams have had some great players be around the team and not produced winning results. So, the question is “why did the Yankees find so much success?”

What people need to realize, is that the Yankees had core players that have lasted at the most key positions in baseball. Most every baseball man will tell you, the key to winning is up the middle defense. You want catcher, shortstop, center field and pitching. The Yankees had this covered with Jorge Posada being a great game caller and a potent bat, Derek Jeter with great range (for the first 10 years) and the greatest number 2 hitter in the last 15 years, and Mariano Rivera with the cut fastball that breaks lefty bats and leaves righty bats swinging at air. He is without a doubt, the greatest closer of all time. Those are 3 really big time positions to lock up for 15 years, but there is more when you add in Bernie Williams patrolling center field for 10 years of this stretch and hitting over .300 in the postseason. Andy Pettite was in the rotation for the majority of these years. Paul O’Neill stood solid in right field for the majority of those years. You can even throw in Orlando Hernandez with a 6 year run. While all these staples of the Yankee system came up and played at an extremely high level, they were able to produce more talent in the minors and take risks on high talent, questionable prospects like Robinson Cano, who looks to inherit the role of the new Yankees as this generation slows down.

So, while it’s true that the Yankees have spent a lot of money on some high class free agents, they are spending it on positions that most any team can buy players and get decent production. Corner infield and outfield are positions that can be filled fairly easily and if the Yankees out bid everyone by 100 million for Mark Teixera and the Nationals pay Adam Dunn 10% of that and get close to equal production, it’s not that big of an advantage. Plus, other teams have plenty of free agents on the corners to bid with the Yankees. Seattle tried the “buying” a championship mentality by signing Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson in the same offseason only to realize that they just spent a ton of money for two positions that can be filled a lot cheaper with comparable or better production. The Yankees are able to hide this reality with headlines of huge contracts and then all the wins on the backbone of their core position players up the middle. They have had the luxury to be able to trade minor league players in their system to help with their pitching staff because of the players on the major league roster in key positions that continued to perform. The Yankees dominant run as been due to the talent and performance of these centerpieces and their ability to stay healthy. The Red Sox have been looking for a solution at shortstop since Nomar Garciaparra and have yet to find one (not to mention the 20 years prior to Nomar.) The Twins have been looking for a consistent shortstop for 30 years (since Greg Gagne) and have yet to find one. The Yankees have supplemented these core players with headline grabbing power and pitching, but it’s only because they have had the luxury to do so based on the steady play of Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Andy Pettite.

These Yankees are on the tail end of their careers. Yes, Jeter will play another 3-4 years probably, Posada maybe another 2 years, and we don’t know about Mariano or Andy. So, now that the Yankees are about to lose those players, they are going to be in the same boat as a lot of teams in looking for a consistent shortstop, a lock down closer, and a great game calling and offensively proficient catcher. Without these players, the Yankees spending may look more like the overspending that Seattle did years ago with Sexson and Beltre, or look like the Dodgers with Kevin Brown, or the Rockies with Mike Hampton, or the Cubs with Alfonso Soriano, or countless other massive contracts that are ignored because their teams didn’t succeed like the Yankees. Pitching and corner positions are a dime a dozen, but when a team is looking for catching, up the middle defense and a shut down closer under pressure, it’s a little bit harder to fill those. Teams, both big market and small, don’t just let those kinds of players walk on the free agent market (Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, and Matt Kemp are recent examples.)

When people argue that the Yankees are buying championships, I think you have to look a little deeper than the headlines. Look in to the eyes of the beast, look deep in the abyss and see that Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada stare right back at you. The Yankees didn’t buy championships any more than numerous other clubs could have. They didn’t develop any more talent than any other club could have. They just supplemented their core, the same thing any other team would try to do if they had developed a great shortstop, catcher, center fielder and closer at exactly the same time. The Yankees will be a new team in couple years. They will cross their fingers that Joba can replace Mariano, that Jesus Montero can stay behind the plate and replace Posada, and that they can find a shortstop to last half the time, and have half the production of Jeter. The 2013 Yankees will be in the middle of their transitional phase. So, be patient Yankee haters. Their reign of terror will end soon and they will be fishing for talent in the key positions just like the rest of major league baseball.

- J Filth

Timberwolves Face Starvation

The Timberwolves have again, been the recipient of bad luck due to the NBA draft lottery. Fans should not be discouraged by this, since it is only a chance for us to misfire two picks later than previously anticipated. As a Timberwolves fan, I have had to live through the reign of Kevin McHale and his staff while they squandered Kevin Garnett’s best years. With bad contracts (Spreewell 28 mill / 2 yrs) and worse trades (Jaric for Cassell AND 1st Round Pick,) poor draft picks of low upside players (Will Avery, Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants) and of course the loss of numerous first round picks due to the signing of Joe Smith.

I was pleased, just as most basketball fans were, when Glen Taylor finally decided to cut ties with Kevin McHale. A decision that was long overdue. Now I am in favor of stability in an industry and I am in favor of giving employees the opportunity to fulfill their vision of the team, however, McHale was given the keys to Target Center for over 10 years and year after year it was clear that we were not improving the team through with youthful talent, not bringing in any upside players and giving out money to aging free agents to appear as though we were surrounding Kevin Garnett with talent. The final straw for me was the moment we drafted Brandon Roy. I was ecstatic; I called my friend and said that I can’t believe we actually made a good pick in the draft because it had been so long. Within 30 minutes my enthusiasm was greeted with a Frankenstein stare from Kevin McHale announcing that we have traded Roy for Brandon Roy. All of this information is well known. Hindsight is 20/20, but over the last 15 years, the Wolves organization has continued to fail in every aspect.

This brings us to 2009, when a new hope has entered my mind. Educated, English major, David Kahn takes over the GM position and I am finally able to be excited again about the potential rebuilding of Minnesota basketball. To my dismay, our very first draft with Mr. Kahn gave a different kind of disappointment. The Wolves owned both the 5th and 6th picks in the first round and my pre-draft want list was Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozen and Stephen Curry. Any combination of these players is what I was hoping for. The problem with us taking Mr. Rubio with the 5th pick is that we have since learned that Rubio had/has no interest playing with the Timberwolves. Before making a pick that high in the draft, you would think that we would do our homework on the player personally as well as physically. Then, we learned that the Timberwolves did not have a single representative speak with Rubio or Rubio’s people before the draft. Knowing that he has no interest playing in Minnesota and would refuse to sign might have been information we would have wanted to know before drafting him. The idea to sell fans that the reason for his not coming over is the buyout clause is absurd. If he wanted to come over he certainly would have, and if he wanted a larger check we could have worked out some endorsement deals on the side to compensate for the first portion of the contract. Endorsement deals that I’m sure are more enticing in a larger market. This information would have been useful for the organization prior to drafting Rubio and shows a complete lack of effort by our organization in researching for the draft. Then, we take Jonny Flynn, an undersized speedster guard that is a drive and kick out point. Basically, Flynn is designed to be a 6th man, change of pace guard to fly by opponents in the mid second quarter and the late 3rd quarter. This is fine pick for a late first or second round pick, but when someone like Stephen Curry is left on the board, it’s hard to justify this pick. Curry can play the point, as he ultimately proved with Golden State this year, but even if he wasn’t able to play the point, he is a dead eye shooter in the worst case scenario. That is one of those situations where an upside player was available and we chose a guy that we already know exactly what he is and more importantly what he is not.

So now, I have no faith in the 2010 draft no matter where we ultimately pick. John Wall will be gone. Evan Turner is not Brandon Roy, despite the comparisons. Roy is a better shooter, stronger, able create his own shot and can run a pro style offense. Turner was able to dominate a weak Big 10 based on slashing around slower competition. This leaves Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins and Wes Johnson for the Wolves at pick number 4. I like all three of these players and rank them just behind John Wall. Now, the problem for the Wolves is that we have Al Jefferson and Kevin Love playing the position of two of these three. Favors has a man’s frame and added muscle over his time at Georgia Tech. At 6’10” with a huge wingspan, it’s reasonable to think that he could play center, but is ideal as a power forward. Cousins has even greater upside than Favors based on physical skills, but all reports are that he is immature and not dedicated to the game. Some homework will have to be done on him to find out if he would stop the questionable effort he has given once he gets a paycheck or if he’ll increase the work. Homework that I don’t believe our current scouts are capable of. Wesley Johnson really reminds me of Scottie Pippen. He has size, length, can see the floor to slash and shoot a mid-range jumper. He would be my ideal pick for the Wolves if we stay in our current slot. Wesley Johnson, Kevin Love and a shooter to be named later would be a great trio to actually rebuild around and bring basketball back to Minnesota.

The problem is that David Kahn and his staff are calling the shots. So inevitably, the pick will probably be Cole Aldrich (who could be a serviceable center for 25 min a night) or maybe we trade two of our picks to move up and grab Evan Turner (a move that I could respect for effort, but I don’t agree with the player analysis.) Perhaps Kahn kept a lot of the same scouts from the McHale era / eon. No matter the reason, the first year draft under Kahn showed Minnesota fans that our ability to evaluate talent is lacking by drafting Jonny Flynn and showed our lack of business sense by not communicating with Ricky Rubio prior to selecting him. This does not give the Minnesota fans much hope for 2010 draft, but I’ll still be tuning in. Unfortunately, the larger population of Minnesota is already forgetting we have a basketball squad.

My ideal draft scenario:

4th Overall – Wesley Johnson (SF) Syracuse
Alternatives if W. Johnson is taken prior to 4th. Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins

16th Overall – Paul George (SF/SG) Fresno St.
Alternatives if P. George is taken prior to 16th. James Anderson, Xavier Henry

23rd Overall – Solomon Alabi (PF/C) Florida St.
Alternatives if S. Alabi is taken prior to 23rd. Willie Warren, Jarvis Varnado

The Wolves will probably use at least one of these picks to stash a European player for financial reasons though, so getting three building blocks to play from Day 1 isn’t realistic. It is realistic that we could move Al Jefferson to Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala and some pick swaps. The remaining money is very similar and it could improve both teams. No matter what happens with the team over this offseason, the Minnesota Timberwolves basketball fans need to be fed some wins and some hope.

-J Filth

Return of the...

You can insert the final piece of this title as you deem fit. Jedi, Mack, King, Living Dead, or any other of the many phrases we all know. The point is that the return is occurring. For those unaware, I was diagnosed with cancer some time ago. I have been undergoing treatment for lymphoma and the doctor’s anticipate a full recovery within the next few months. I am now returning to the underbelly of the sports world, infiltrating the minds of our greatest athletes and general managers, and exposing the truth about our leagues like Sam Spade would a corrupt noir plot.

The natural place to begin is to look in to what has been consuming my mind for close to a year. Cancer has occupied a large portion of my thoughts along with thousands of others around the world. One of these people is Boston Red Sox left-hander Jon Lester. It was just back in August of 2006 when Jon Lester was diagnosed with lymphoma and had to sacrifice his pitching career to endure treatment to save his life. He had a remarkable return to his baseball career just a year later, coming back to start 11 games in 2007 and then make his mark in the playoffs by pitching the 2007 World Series game clinching win over the Colorado Rockies. The comeback story has continued to escalate by pitching over 200 innings and bringing in at least 15 wins with a sub 4.00 ERA in 2008 and 2009. Now, this success story is just background noise when talking about Jon Lester. He is the most dominant left-handed pitcher in baseball this side of CC Sabathia after blowing through lineups with 225 strikeouts last season. Expectations for Lester are extremely high, and most inside the numbers of baseball believe he is the true ace and key to the Boston staff now, or at least up until Beckett transforms in to Mr. Hyde and takes over October. With Boston off to a slow start, the place to begin our investigation must begin with baseball’s success story Jon Lester.

Lester’s current stat line shows an 0-2 record, 6.23 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. These are the numbers the headline the stats, but they don’t tell the real story. The first thing to be noted is Lester has faced three of the most potent offensive lineups in all of baseball (Yankees, Twins and Rays.) However, this is no excuse for a man that is supposed to be able to dominate any lineup on any given day and that includes the left handed heavy Yankees and Twins. So we have to look a little bit deeper than the lineup and the base stats.

This season Lester has a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) at a higher rate than he ever has with a mark over .350. This is bound to come down a bit, since his rate of line drives given up has stayed constant throughout the years, but his ground ball rate is up this year. So he has been susceptible to the notorious “ground ball with eyes.” This may account for some of the issues with his high ERA, but the WHIP line is high due to his inordinate amount of walks so far this year. He has a K/BB rate of 1.62 this year as opposed to an amazing 3.52 last year. So for every 3 strikeouts last year, he gave up a walk, and this year it’s closer to one to one. You take the bat out of the hands of that many guys last year, and keep it in the hands of them this year, plus bring in the BABIP and we have the cause of these struggling stats. Now, we need to find out why these stats are occurring.

The last two years, Lester has thrown his fastball 55% of the time, while tossing the cutter 20% and the curveball 20%. Then he would mix in a changeup for the final 5%. This year, Lester has been throwing that changeup at a much higher rate. He is using it in situations where he threw the curveball last year. This year he is throwing the curveball and changeup at about 12% while maintaining the fastball and cutter at 55/20. These numbers and his high walk rate indicates that he is having a tough time locating this changeup, which is expected for a guy placing a pitch in to his repertoire at a more regular rate.

All these things indicate positive news ahead for Lester and the Red Sox. The changeup will have a lot less stress on Lester’s arm than the curveball, adding life to his career. The changeup has been generating a lot more groundballs which will prove positive for the improved Red Sox defense. As soon as Lester has a couple more starts of practicing that changeup, he will be a ground ball inducing, strike throwing lefty with enough power to punish hitters to the tune of 200 strikeouts. These Red Sox will win at least another 15 games behind Lester again this year and the cancer survivor has added a new pitch that will lengthen his career and add to his already dominating statistics and glorious return from a deadly disease.

- J Filth

Favre Dollar Foot Long

Brett Favre signing with the Vikings hit the news wires a week ago now. That’s one full week of overflowing garbage cans of meaningless conversation, dumpster piles of speculation and landfills of excitement. It’s time to take a real look at the impact of this signing. Brett Favre signing with the Vikings is a bargain basement deal for a franchise in desperate need of a publicity push. The 12 million dollar contract paid for itself in the first 3 days of coverage.

Favre jerseys on websites and in local Minnesota shops instantly improved those profit lines by 150% in the first three days. Ticket sales skyrocketed over the last week, both season and individual game seats. National media coverage will buy the contracts for our games to be televised to a broader market as well as having headlining highlights on national sports broadcasts. All this exposure allowing for more profits to the Vikings, Minnesota, and ultimately allowing the Minnesota fans to get the new Vikings stadium they have been waiting for.

Now let’s look at the on field angle. The offensive game should be impressive as well as the defensive game, however, it is hard to rule the Vikings favorites in the NFC. The prospect of having Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor running behind a Bryant McKinnie and Steve Hutchinson wall, while having a quarterback able to throw more than a screen pass, 5 yard out route, or a bootleg rollout is something Vikings fans have not had in a long time. Anyone can tell you, a capable quarterback that can read defenses and throw the ball over the middle of the field and to the outside past 15 yards is something Minnesota has needed. Favre, plus Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe has a standard versatility to keep defensives on their heels with the running game occupying their minds first. The offensive line has some new additions, but veterans Artis Hicks, Anthony Herrera, Ryan Cook, Hutchinson and McKinnie should be a stable unit with rookie Phil Loadholt coming in for relief. The offense as a whole will be dominating in the running game and has the potential for an explosive passing game when necessary.

The defense could even be improved over its impressive 2008. Pat and Kevin Williams form the best interior in football and with Fred Evans and former number one pick Jimmy Kennedy filling in gaps, the Vikes are insured. Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and Brian Robison on the outside give consistent pressure to allow the LB to move in and out of the box freely. EJ Henderson returns from injury, Chad Greenway is now two years removed from surgery, to go along with stable veteran Ben Leber. Perennial pro bowler Antoine Winfield returns with more experienced Cedric Griffin and Marcus McCauley to play opposite and nickel respectively. Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson have the power and speed to play strong and free safety in a system like ours, dominated by a heavy front line force. The defense shows little weakness with strong rotations on the front line, athletic linebackers and a hard hitting secondary.

The paper trail looks great for the Vikings in 2009-2010. The two problems are, one, the old sports cliché “The games aren’t played on paper”, and, two, we don’t know what Brad Childress is capable of with a fully loaded gun. For years, he has developed this system around the limitations of his quarterback. Calling bootlegs, screens and three step drops to limit mistakes. This is what I thought, but now, without that handicap, we will actually see if that was Childress just calling plays designed for the talent he had on the field or if he has a poor play calling and in game coaching ability. Childress has called a 3 yard hook route on a third and 8 many times, and heard the “boos” from the crowd in the Metrodome. The Vikings success is not so much determined by the talent on the field, but the director instructing that talent.

No longer can Vikings fans look at their team and wish for a better quarterback, defensive end, wide receiver or any other position as they have for many years. Now, all the pieces are in place and we can really see if we have a coach capable of leading a team to victories. Will we have a masterpiece of performances like The Godfather, brought together perfectly by Francis Ford Coppola? Will we have a talented group fall short due like in Suicide Kings, with the director Peter O'Fallon being unable to capture the potential talents? Brad Childress gets to put on his directors pants for this year with no excuses. The budget is there, the talent is there, the story is already written in the heads of both Vikings fans and the national media. After years of failure, including four super bowl losses, the Minnesota Vikings can reach the summit on the back of a living football legend.

These questions will be revealed to us each week beginning September 13th and we are all anxious to see the results. In the meantime, the one thing we do know for sure is that Brett Favre signing with the Vikings brings dollars to Minnesota, brings exposure to Minnesota, and brings hopes of football’s future in Minnesota.

- J Filth