Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Summer of LeBron

Would the lyrics of Summer of ’69 be able to substitute LeBron for ’69? I think it’s passable. Anyway, here’s two cents about what might be the best fit for LeBron from an outsider perspective.

First, LeBron is a man. He has his own thoughts and feelings. Just because something is a good fit, doesn’t necessarily mean he likes the city and wants to live there. A large portion of this summer's decision isn’t necessarily teammates, money or endorsements. It’s going to be the man’s personal happiness. NBA glory would be great as well, but remember that we are talking about a guy moving to a new city for a job. Just like anyone else, you want to be happy with the city you live in. So just because the Knicks being led back to glory after 50 years of mediocrity (exception to the Ewing/Oakley front line that couldn’t get by Jordan) would be a good story, doesn’t mean that he wants to live near Madison Square Garden.

Taking in to consideration all of the factors except for his personal feelings, the best fit for LeBron James would be the New Jersey Nets. Recently the Nets have lost consideration in most media reporting and Chicago, Cleveland and New York seem to be the only teams they are talking about. So we’ll break it down a bit more than what the blurbs explain on ESPN and the like.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
We should start where he left off and where he will be for at least the next month before the free agency period begins. Cleveland has built its franchise around LeBron, but it obviously has not worked. Danny Ferry has tried so hard to bring in new and different talent in this short period of time because the window is potentially closing for their success. Arguably, the only real consistent presence has been their internal man Anderson Varejao. I have to think that LeBron has seen what Cleveland has to offer. They tried to build a team around him, but settled for less than ideal talent to fill very big roles. Daniel Gibson had to take big shots a year ago, Anthony Parker this year. The potential controversy over DeLonte West can’t leave a good taste in LeBron’s mouth either (if you don’t know, do a search for DeLonte and LeBron.) The only real selling point for Cleveland is the potential for JJ Hickson and a potential new coach with an actual offensive scheme. Mike Brown did not do the team any favors, by just giving LeBron the ball and letting him run an offense of his own design, an offense of jacking up long 3 point shots and driving the lane to triple team defense.

Without any significant draft picks, young sprouting talent (outside of JJ Hickson), veteran leadership from either coach or point guard and no shooters to compliment his assets, there is no incentive to resigning with Cleveland outside of the extra cash from one more guaranteed year.

Chicago Bulls:
Derrick Rose is the best point guard in the game within 2 years. There is no doubt in my mind about this statement. He is able to take over games with his physicality, he can drive, he can shoot, he can run different offensive schemes and he can close out games. On the surface, this looks like a great teammate for LeBron, but LeBron would have to take a backseat to Rose. Rose would be running the offense and LeBron would have to play on the wing and slash. This would be extremely entertaining and be a potentially dominating team, but I can’t imagine that LeBron would want to be the second option on a squad, since by default Rose is the first option with the ball in his hand. This is especially true for a team that would ultimately cast the biggest shadow in the form of his Airness, Michael Jordan.

Then you can add in Joakim Noah as a nice rebounder, but the rest of the team doesn’t fit well with a LeBron type talent. The desire would be to have shooters able to nail shots when LeBron and Rose kick the ball out after they drive and absorb the defenders. The Bulls only have Kirk Hinrich as a shooter and I wouldn’t want to depend on 6’3” Kirk Hinrich as my one and only dead shooter. Hakim Warrick, Taj Gibson, James Johnson can be quality players, but none fill out the team in a way to help LeBron.

New York Knicks:
The New York Knicks have a compelling case to bringing in LeBron. The first of which is the largest stage on the planet. Playing in New York City, in front of the world’s media, in Madison Square Garden nightly is the largest publicity he could ask for. His endorsement possibilities are much greater in a city like New York. He would have a daunting task in bringing a storied franchise back to glory after years of mediocrity like a phoenix rising from the rosin powder he throws before each game. They moved all of their money around the past couple years to be in a position to sign both LeBron and another big time free agent player. They signed a high octane offensive coach in Mike D’Antoni. All these things are good selling points for the Knicks and it might be enough to lure him, however, the actual roster doesn’t seem to fit LeBron’s game.

Mike D’Antoni’s running team revolves around the steady play of a solid point guard and that is the one thing that the Knicks lack the most. Without a steady point guard (and none on the free agent market) the Knicks may have to run an offensive system similar to what Cleveland ran with LeBron. Basically give him the ball and let him try to create. The Knicks, like the Bulls also lack the shooters needed for LeBron to kick the ball out. I can’t imagine LeBron kicking the ball out to 6’1” Toney Douglas for game winning shots consistently. Wilson Chandler could be a decent player, but is not physical enough to play the 4 and LeBron would be playing the 3. Danilo Gallinari could be a nice asset as a big, shooting 4 player, but then they would still be lacking a rebounding presence inside. So, the Knicks need a lot of work that free agency won’t resolve. A point guard, a rebounding center, an interior defensive presence and shooters are needed even if they bring in both LeBron and Amare Stoudamire.

New Jersey Nets:
The New Jersey Nets in all likelihood will be the Brooklyn Nets within 3 years. The area brings him to the largest stage in the world, which as stated above, brings in all types of endorsement possibilities. The new Russian billionaire owner, Mikhail Prokhorov, is willing to spend the money for a brand new, state of the art facility in Brooklyn, spend the money for the best coach possible, spend the money to promote the franchise to try to make Knicks fans in to Nets fans, and spare no expense for future acquisitions. It doesn’t hurt that LeBron is known for being friends with Jay-Z and he is partial owner of the team. The greatest reason for LeBron to go to the Nets is the team itself.

Yes, it’s true the Nets had the worst record in the league last year. However, there is a lot of talent on the team without a true leader. LeBron could be that leader. Devin Harris is a steady point guard that doesn’t need to be the star, which is a perfect fit for a player like LeBron. Brook Lopez is a better version of Anderson Varajeo with more youth and bigger upside. These two positions are the biggest need to a slashing/shooting small forward like LeBron. Then, you add in some shooters on the outside to compliment LeBron and make defenses not be able to focus completely on them. Being able to kick the ball out to Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts is much better than what other teams can offer. The Nets have a young Terrence Williams that can play three positions and defend the ball well to fill in all the gaps of the game that are missing. Even Yi Jianlian has a chance to be a better player with a guy like LeBron taking pressure off him. Then, the Nets have the 3rd overall pick in this year’s draft that they can use on a quality power forward prospect like Derrick Favors or DeMarcus Cousins.

The Nets have a perfect combination of location, money, publicity, talent and youth to compete and continue to grow over the next 10 years. This is a much better offer than any other franchise can come up with. The largest media city in the world, an owner willing to spend mercilessly, young talent to compliment his game and the ability to grow with these young players for years to come is the greatest situation LeBron James could ask for. Now, the question is, does LeBron want to live in New York?

- J Filth

Monday, May 24, 2010

Yankee Aplogist?

An obvious statement would be that the New York Yankees are the most hated team in baseball. Countless times I have had conversations with friends, co-workers, and strangers about the New York Yankees. Every complaint revolves around the Yankees buying their players and they are sick of seeing money win championships instead of teams. I am not a Yankee sympathizer, in fact, they are my most hated team, but for more classical rivalry reasons. I always find myself having to defend them in the arguments with all of these people. There are a few things people need to realize about how the Yankees have been consistently successful over the last 15 years.

This year, every broadcaster has been announcing that the Yankees have the three players that have played the longest together for any franchise in any sport. That is 15 years together for Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera. This is reason alone to give credit to the Yankees success, but other teams have had some great players be around the team and not produced winning results. So, the question is “why did the Yankees find so much success?”

What people need to realize, is that the Yankees had core players that have lasted at the most key positions in baseball. Most every baseball man will tell you, the key to winning is up the middle defense. You want catcher, shortstop, center field and pitching. The Yankees had this covered with Jorge Posada being a great game caller and a potent bat, Derek Jeter with great range (for the first 10 years) and the greatest number 2 hitter in the last 15 years, and Mariano Rivera with the cut fastball that breaks lefty bats and leaves righty bats swinging at air. He is without a doubt, the greatest closer of all time. Those are 3 really big time positions to lock up for 15 years, but there is more when you add in Bernie Williams patrolling center field for 10 years of this stretch and hitting over .300 in the postseason. Andy Pettite was in the rotation for the majority of these years. Paul O’Neill stood solid in right field for the majority of those years. You can even throw in Orlando Hernandez with a 6 year run. While all these staples of the Yankee system came up and played at an extremely high level, they were able to produce more talent in the minors and take risks on high talent, questionable prospects like Robinson Cano, who looks to inherit the role of the new Yankees as this generation slows down.

So, while it’s true that the Yankees have spent a lot of money on some high class free agents, they are spending it on positions that most any team can buy players and get decent production. Corner infield and outfield are positions that can be filled fairly easily and if the Yankees out bid everyone by 100 million for Mark Teixera and the Nationals pay Adam Dunn 10% of that and get close to equal production, it’s not that big of an advantage. Plus, other teams have plenty of free agents on the corners to bid with the Yankees. Seattle tried the “buying” a championship mentality by signing Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson in the same offseason only to realize that they just spent a ton of money for two positions that can be filled a lot cheaper with comparable or better production. The Yankees are able to hide this reality with headlines of huge contracts and then all the wins on the backbone of their core position players up the middle. They have had the luxury to be able to trade minor league players in their system to help with their pitching staff because of the players on the major league roster in key positions that continued to perform. The Yankees dominant run as been due to the talent and performance of these centerpieces and their ability to stay healthy. The Red Sox have been looking for a solution at shortstop since Nomar Garciaparra and have yet to find one (not to mention the 20 years prior to Nomar.) The Twins have been looking for a consistent shortstop for 30 years (since Greg Gagne) and have yet to find one. The Yankees have supplemented these core players with headline grabbing power and pitching, but it’s only because they have had the luxury to do so based on the steady play of Jeter, Posada, Rivera, Bernie Williams, and Andy Pettite.

These Yankees are on the tail end of their careers. Yes, Jeter will play another 3-4 years probably, Posada maybe another 2 years, and we don’t know about Mariano or Andy. So, now that the Yankees are about to lose those players, they are going to be in the same boat as a lot of teams in looking for a consistent shortstop, a lock down closer, and a great game calling and offensively proficient catcher. Without these players, the Yankees spending may look more like the overspending that Seattle did years ago with Sexson and Beltre, or look like the Dodgers with Kevin Brown, or the Rockies with Mike Hampton, or the Cubs with Alfonso Soriano, or countless other massive contracts that are ignored because their teams didn’t succeed like the Yankees. Pitching and corner positions are a dime a dozen, but when a team is looking for catching, up the middle defense and a shut down closer under pressure, it’s a little bit harder to fill those. Teams, both big market and small, don’t just let those kinds of players walk on the free agent market (Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, and Matt Kemp are recent examples.)

When people argue that the Yankees are buying championships, I think you have to look a little deeper than the headlines. Look in to the eyes of the beast, look deep in the abyss and see that Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada stare right back at you. The Yankees didn’t buy championships any more than numerous other clubs could have. They didn’t develop any more talent than any other club could have. They just supplemented their core, the same thing any other team would try to do if they had developed a great shortstop, catcher, center fielder and closer at exactly the same time. The Yankees will be a new team in couple years. They will cross their fingers that Joba can replace Mariano, that Jesus Montero can stay behind the plate and replace Posada, and that they can find a shortstop to last half the time, and have half the production of Jeter. The 2013 Yankees will be in the middle of their transitional phase. So, be patient Yankee haters. Their reign of terror will end soon and they will be fishing for talent in the key positions just like the rest of major league baseball.

- J Filth

Friday, May 21, 2010

Timberwolves Face Starvation

The Timberwolves have again, been the recipient of bad luck due to the NBA draft lottery. Fans should not be discouraged by this, since it is only a chance for us to misfire two picks later than previously anticipated. As a Timberwolves fan, I have had to live through the reign of Kevin McHale and his staff while they squandered Kevin Garnett’s best years. With bad contracts (Spreewell 28 mill / 2 yrs) and worse trades (Jaric for Cassell AND 1st Round Pick,) poor draft picks of low upside players (Will Avery, Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants) and of course the loss of numerous first round picks due to the signing of Joe Smith.

I was pleased, just as most basketball fans were, when Glen Taylor finally decided to cut ties with Kevin McHale. A decision that was long overdue. Now I am in favor of stability in an industry and I am in favor of giving employees the opportunity to fulfill their vision of the team, however, McHale was given the keys to Target Center for over 10 years and year after year it was clear that we were not improving the team through with youthful talent, not bringing in any upside players and giving out money to aging free agents to appear as though we were surrounding Kevin Garnett with talent. The final straw for me was the moment we drafted Brandon Roy. I was ecstatic; I called my friend and said that I can’t believe we actually made a good pick in the draft because it had been so long. Within 30 minutes my enthusiasm was greeted with a Frankenstein stare from Kevin McHale announcing that we have traded Roy for Brandon Roy. All of this information is well known. Hindsight is 20/20, but over the last 15 years, the Wolves organization has continued to fail in every aspect.

This brings us to 2009, when a new hope has entered my mind. Educated, English major, David Kahn takes over the GM position and I am finally able to be excited again about the potential rebuilding of Minnesota basketball. To my dismay, our very first draft with Mr. Kahn gave a different kind of disappointment. The Wolves owned both the 5th and 6th picks in the first round and my pre-draft want list was Ricky Rubio, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozen and Stephen Curry. Any combination of these players is what I was hoping for. The problem with us taking Mr. Rubio with the 5th pick is that we have since learned that Rubio had/has no interest playing with the Timberwolves. Before making a pick that high in the draft, you would think that we would do our homework on the player personally as well as physically. Then, we learned that the Timberwolves did not have a single representative speak with Rubio or Rubio’s people before the draft. Knowing that he has no interest playing in Minnesota and would refuse to sign might have been information we would have wanted to know before drafting him. The idea to sell fans that the reason for his not coming over is the buyout clause is absurd. If he wanted to come over he certainly would have, and if he wanted a larger check we could have worked out some endorsement deals on the side to compensate for the first portion of the contract. Endorsement deals that I’m sure are more enticing in a larger market. This information would have been useful for the organization prior to drafting Rubio and shows a complete lack of effort by our organization in researching for the draft. Then, we take Jonny Flynn, an undersized speedster guard that is a drive and kick out point. Basically, Flynn is designed to be a 6th man, change of pace guard to fly by opponents in the mid second quarter and the late 3rd quarter. This is fine pick for a late first or second round pick, but when someone like Stephen Curry is left on the board, it’s hard to justify this pick. Curry can play the point, as he ultimately proved with Golden State this year, but even if he wasn’t able to play the point, he is a dead eye shooter in the worst case scenario. That is one of those situations where an upside player was available and we chose a guy that we already know exactly what he is and more importantly what he is not.

So now, I have no faith in the 2010 draft no matter where we ultimately pick. John Wall will be gone. Evan Turner is not Brandon Roy, despite the comparisons. Roy is a better shooter, stronger, able create his own shot and can run a pro style offense. Turner was able to dominate a weak Big 10 based on slashing around slower competition. This leaves Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins and Wes Johnson for the Wolves at pick number 4. I like all three of these players and rank them just behind John Wall. Now, the problem for the Wolves is that we have Al Jefferson and Kevin Love playing the position of two of these three. Favors has a man’s frame and added muscle over his time at Georgia Tech. At 6’10” with a huge wingspan, it’s reasonable to think that he could play center, but is ideal as a power forward. Cousins has even greater upside than Favors based on physical skills, but all reports are that he is immature and not dedicated to the game. Some homework will have to be done on him to find out if he would stop the questionable effort he has given once he gets a paycheck or if he’ll increase the work. Homework that I don’t believe our current scouts are capable of. Wesley Johnson really reminds me of Scottie Pippen. He has size, length, can see the floor to slash and shoot a mid-range jumper. He would be my ideal pick for the Wolves if we stay in our current slot. Wesley Johnson, Kevin Love and a shooter to be named later would be a great trio to actually rebuild around and bring basketball back to Minnesota.

The problem is that David Kahn and his staff are calling the shots. So inevitably, the pick will probably be Cole Aldrich (who could be a serviceable center for 25 min a night) or maybe we trade two of our picks to move up and grab Evan Turner (a move that I could respect for effort, but I don’t agree with the player analysis.) Perhaps Kahn kept a lot of the same scouts from the McHale era / eon. No matter the reason, the first year draft under Kahn showed Minnesota fans that our ability to evaluate talent is lacking by drafting Jonny Flynn and showed our lack of business sense by not communicating with Ricky Rubio prior to selecting him. This does not give the Minnesota fans much hope for 2010 draft, but I’ll still be tuning in. Unfortunately, the larger population of Minnesota is already forgetting we have a basketball squad.

My ideal draft scenario:

4th Overall – Wesley Johnson (SF) Syracuse
Alternatives if W. Johnson is taken prior to 4th. Derrick Favors, DeMarcus Cousins

16th Overall – Paul George (SF/SG) Fresno St.
Alternatives if P. George is taken prior to 16th. James Anderson, Xavier Henry

23rd Overall – Solomon Alabi (PF/C) Florida St.
Alternatives if S. Alabi is taken prior to 23rd. Willie Warren, Jarvis Varnado

The Wolves will probably use at least one of these picks to stash a European player for financial reasons though, so getting three building blocks to play from Day 1 isn’t realistic. It is realistic that we could move Al Jefferson to Philadelphia for Andre Iguodala and some pick swaps. The remaining money is very similar and it could improve both teams. No matter what happens with the team over this offseason, the Minnesota Timberwolves basketball fans need to be fed some wins and some hope.

-J Filth